Funders:                  Royal Academy of Engineering, UK

Time frame:           1 April 2022 – 31 March 2024

Contract value:      £ 10 000

Project Team:         Prof. Jeff Smithers, Dr Thomas Kjeldsen

Collaborators:        University of Bath (UK), National Flood Studies Programme

Context:  As in many developing countries, many of the methods used for design flood estimation in South Africa were developed decades ago using limited datasets, or are applied in South Africa without adaptation to local conditions or calibration and verification against local data.  The methods thus require updating and modernising to limit the risk of flood inundation and the failure of hydraulic structures, and include the need to account for the potential impacts of climate change. This need has resulted in the initiation of the National Floods Programme (NFSP) in South Africa by the South African Council on Large Dam (SANCOLD) and the Water Research Commission (WRC) and the NFSP is supported by the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) and the South African Roads Agency Limited (SANRAL). In addition to the need to update and modernise methods used for design flood estimation in South Africa, very limited capacity and expertise is available to undertake the research and to apply the methods in practice. There is thus a need to develop capacity in flood risk assessment both in academia and industry. In order to address the above needs, international expertise and collaboration is needed to build local research capacity, update flood estimation methods and to train industry in the application of the methods.

Objectives:  The objectives of this project include the following:

• Continue and strengthen collaboration with University of Bath to support the NFSP.
• Contribute to research output and capacity development in the support of the NFSP.

Outcomes: This project supported national and international research exchange visits, facilitated an annual NFSP Research Workshop with industry, drafting and submission of joint project proposals, collaboration on research projects, joint supervision of postgraduate students, and contributions to training courses for industry.

This project contributed to capacity development in academia and industry and strengthened and supported national and international multi-institutional collaboration on the National Flood Studies Programme.

Funders:                 Water Research Commission

Time frame:           1 January 2021 – 31 December 2024

Contract value:      R 360 000

Project Team:         Sue van Rensburg (Project Leader), Prof. Seifu Kebede (UKZN)

Collaborators:        SAEON

Context: Deciphering the complex interaction between land use and climate change and how this impacts local water availability and economy. The coupled hydrological and economic model will be used to quantify the interaction and its impacts.

Objectives:  The objectives of this project include the following:

• Providing a strategic decision-support tool to that can explore the net economic and environmental consequences of different economic and land use choices under different climate scenarios.
• Using a “systems approach” with cogeneration approaches where several potential future land management-climate change trajectories will be assessed by integrating appropriately scaled hydrological and climate information with economic options for an integrated systems view of net effects under likely climate futures.
• The consequences and feedbacks of land management choices on water security and livelihoods will then be explored.
• Measures that can help mitigate the environmental and economic consequences of extreme events such as floods, recurrent droughts and heat waves will then be identified by understanding the interconnections between land management, climate and economics and the influences of these on the water resource.

UKZN’s role in the project is to train two MSc students and provide analytical services on isotope hydrology.

Outcomes: Driven by a societal need to improve water and economic security, a multi-scaled, integrated approach was used to assess the potential impacts of alternative land uses defined by the Traditional Council, under different climate future storylines. The project integrated hydrological, climatological, and economic models to provide decision support to land custodians.  Two UKZN students obtained their MSc under the project – one on isotope hydrology for hydrological processing mapping and the other one on coupled ACRU-MODFLOW modelling of the water systems and investigate the impact of various future climatic and land use scenarios.

Funders:                 DUPC2 Programme

Time frame:           1 January 2020 – 31 December 2023

Contract value:      € 1 202 515 (€ 139 125 CWRR allocation)

Project Team:         Prof Tafadzwa Mabhaudhi, Dr Aidan Senzanje, Dr Zolo Kiala, Dr Tsitsi Bangira

Collaborators:        IHE-Delft, WaterNet, Jones and Wagener, CWRR

Context: Nexus thinking in various configurations has become an accepted approach to integrated resource management and sustainable development over the past decade. The interaction and trade-offs between achieving SDGs (principally SDGs 2, 6 and 7) related to securing Water, Energy and Food (WEF) has resulted in a global focus on the WEF nexus in policy, regulatory and development fraternities. However, there is little empirical evidence and few practical tools available to assess such initiatives’ performance. This project aims to address this. A Water-Energy-Food nexus-based toolkit (WEF-tools) including a structured knowledge base, simulation tools, dashboards and composite index based on globally available indicators and databases through which the current state, trends and interactions/trade-offs can be identified and tested to guide countries and investors in identifying sustainable and adaptive development pathways. Testing, refining and further development of the toolkit will be supported by action research and capacity development to generate empirical evidence to guide its application and interpretation. Water, Energy and Food are at the core of countries’ development plans in the Global South. Whilst most are strongly committed to the SDGs, making development decisions requires understanding synergies and trade-offs (which a nexus approach provides), adapting to a changing climate and economic situations, and monitoring and reporting. This provides a challenge for government departments, River Basin Organisations, as well as NGOs and development agencies. The SADC and MENA regions (regional, national and local scale assessments) supported by selected case studies to enhance the knowledge base of how a WEF nexus approach could enhance water security. WEF tools will provide a means for government ministries and departments, NGOs and development agencies to assess progress towards the constituent Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular, SDGs 2, 6 and 7, and to facilitate integrated planning and policy development at river basin as well as local, national and regional levels.

Objectives:  The objectives of this project include the following:

• To support policy decisions, diplomacy and decision-making processes, both within, as well as across national boundaries in southern Africa and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), to facilitate progress towards selected SDGs using the WEF Nexus approach as a lens to assist in the planning and implementation of inclusive and sustainable adaptive development pathways.
• To assess whether proposed nexus focused policies influence reality at local levels and contribute to transformations to enhance water, food and energy security through focused local case studies in the context of “leaving no one behind”.
• Develop, test, validate and refinement of interactive utilities which support WEF assessments through active engagement with project partners.
• To develop capacity for integrated policy development and planning through enhancing capacity in partner institutions in the focal regions.

Outcomes:  A capacity development programme for the SADC and MENA regions. The  Global WEF Nexus Index is used to quantify nexus trade-offs.

People need water, energy, and food to sustain their livelihoods. The interactions between these form the crux of the WEF Nexus approach.

Funders:                 Water Research Commission

Time frame:           1 April 2022 to 31 March 2024

Contract value:      R 1 440 000

Project Team:        Dr Katelyn Johnson (Project Leader), Prof. Jeff Smithers, Prof. Roland Schulze, Dr Stefanie Schütte, Mr Demain Mukansi (UKZN), Dr Thomas Kjeldsen (University of Bath), Prof. Kobus du Plessis (University of Stellenbosch)

Collaborators:        University of Bath, University of Stellenbosch

Context:  Estimates of extreme design rainfall are routinely needed for Design Flood Estimation (DFE) to design and construct hydraulic structures including dam walls, spillways, culverts and stormwater drains. Standard methods for frequency analysis of extreme events are based on the assumption of a stationary climate. However, this assumption in rainfall and flood frequency analysis is challenged with growing evidence of climate change. As a consequence of a changing climate, the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events has been reported to have increased in parts of South Africa and these and other changes in extreme rainfall occurrences are expected to continue into the future. The possible non-stationarity in climate resulting in changes in rainfall may impact on the accuracy of the estimation of extreme rainfall quantities and design rainfall estimations. Hence, methods that account for non-stationary data, such as those caused by climate change and developments in a catchment, need to be developed. Given the importance of flood risk management, the shortcomings of the methods currently used by practitioners, and the potential impact of climate change, dealing with a non-stationary climate data series currently requires urgent attention in South Africa. This project will build on research undertaken in pilot studies and contribute to a toolbox for DFE for practitioners to use and will include revised Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates and a method/tool to account for non-stationary climate data in design rainfall and PMP estimates and climate change factors for application to design rainfall estimates and PMP estimates for use by practitioners.

Objectives:    The aims of this project were to:

• Review and refine the updated 1-day PMP estimates.
• Develop and assess the performance of a method to account for the impacts of non-stationary data on design rainfall and design flood estimation.
• Assess the trends in hydrological extremes and investigate the use of regional magnification factors.

Outcomes: This project focussed on presenting updated estimates of the 1-day Probable Maximum Precipitation and estimating design rainfalls and design floods under non-stationary conditions. The 1-day PMPs in South Africa were estimated using an updated rainfall database and a modernized methodology. The results highlighted that there has been an increase in extreme rainfall events recorded since previous studies and guidelines were published. The East coast of KwaZulu-Natal was selected for a pilot study to investigate the trends and potential non-stationarity in design rainfalls and design floods. The site area was chosen based on data availability and accessibility. Generally, results showed weak evidence that the annual maximum daily rainfalls and streamflows have been increasing in magnitude over time. Several non-stationary models, using time and various climate drivers as covariates were developed, and compared to the standard stationary models. Most rainfall and streamflow records indicate that a stationary behaviour is dominant. Analysis of climate model data indicate that projected changes in design rainfalls are expected to increase by 10 – 30%. This study highlights that these results may differ in other parts of the country and makes recommendations to improve investigations of future studies.

Given the importance of flood risk assessment and management, the shortcomings of design rainfall and flood estimation methods currently used in practice in South Africa, and the potential impacts of climate change and developments in a catchment, approaches to deal with non-stationary data on a national scale need to be developed.

Funders:                  Water Research Commission

Time frame:            1 April 2022 – 31 March 2024

Contract value:      R 800 000

Project Team:        Dr Julia Glenday, Dr Shaeden Gokool, Dr David Gwapedza, Dr Petra Holden, Dr Alanna Rebelo, Dr Jane Tanner, Dr Faith Jumbi and Ms Penisoh Metho

Collaborators:        University of KwaZulu-Natal, University of Western Cape, Cape Town, Rhodes University, Stellenbosch University

Context:  Hydrological modelling has become a critically important part of water resources management and catchment management in South Africa. Modelling exercises inform weighty decisions, from water use license allocations to development guidelines for flood protection to investments in large-scale ecosystem restoration. With the ever- growing pressure on the nation’s water supply systems, basing decisions on an accurate assessment of surface and groundwater resources and their variability has never been more critical. At the same time South Africa’s meteorological and hydrological monitoring infrastructure has declined severely in recent decades (Bailey and Pitman, 2015), and the sector leans on modelling to fill in the gaps. As our reliance on hydrological modelling grows for increasingly consequential decisions, so too should attention to uncertainty in modelling: Quantifying uncertainty, finding ways to practically reduce uncertainty where possible, and accounting for uncertainty in decision making processes.

There are several different sources of uncertainty in catchment modelling: (i) Uncertainty in the input climate data used to drive the model and the streamflow and other hydrometric data used to assess it, (ii) Uncertainty in the parameter values used to describe the catchment properties, and (iii) uncertainty in the actual structure of the model. All sources of uncertainty require attention, however, structural uncertainty often receives the least, because it can be difficult to quantify. Informed by the findings of the recent WRC-funded project on “Critical catchment hydrological model inter-comparison and model use guidance development” (K5- 2927), this project proposes targeted participatory research into the degree and impacts of model uncertainty across the hydrological modelling sector, with a particular focus on structural uncertainty, complemented by activities to foster discussion across the modelling community on how to practically address these issues. This will be done through designing and running a ‘model-a-thon’ activity in which, a set of different modellers independently model the same case study catchment.

The hydrology community will be further engaged around the issue of modelling approaches and uncertainty assessment through several online channels, including development of a community modelling resources ‘wiki’ website. Engagements will lead into a workshop aimed at developing a policy brief on modelling practice and re-imagining how future water resources are predicted at the national scale.

Objectives:    The objectives of this project include the following:

• Improved understanding of the range of modelling approaches available across modelling tools and the range of approaches applied across the modelling community.
• Improved understanding of the potential scale of impact of individual modeller experience and modeller approach choices on model predictions (model structural uncertainty).
• Consolidation of ideas from the hydrology and modelling community around best-practice for addressing uncertainty and communicating it to decision-makers.
• Capacity building of students and early career researchers in the field of hydrological modelling.
• A strengthened hydrology community of practice.

Outcomes: The key findings of the project have been captured and summarized in a policy brief titled “Deep waters: How ignoring uncertainty in hydrological modelling increases water security risk.”, which can be viewed and downloaded here: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24658755.v1

“There is improved understanding that uncertainty doesn’t imply flaw, and not communicating uncertainty is negligent.”

Funders:                  Global Environment Facility (GEF)

Time frame:            April 2019 – December 2023

Contract value:      R 2 975 279 (CWRR component)

Project Team:        Dr David Clark (Project Leader – CWRR component)

Collaborators:        South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI), Statistics South Africa

Context:  Ecological infrastructure, defined as “naturally functioning ecosystems that generate or deliver valuable services to people”, needs to be considered together with built infrastructure to realise water security in South Africa. The Ecological Infrastructure for Water Accounting (EI4WS) project being executed by SANBI, aims to integrate biodiversity and ecosystem services into planning, finance and development in the water sector to improve water security and avoid further loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. As part of this objective, (i) natural capital accounts related to ecological infrastructure are to be developed at the catchment level, tested for informing planning, management and monitoring of ecological infrastructure for water security, and (ii) capacity and time series data to enable regular production of relevant accounts are to be strengthened. With water being the key focus area of the project, water resource accounts formed part of the suite of ecological infrastructure related natural capital accounts developed in the project.

Objectives:    To (i) develop detailed catchment-scale water resource accounts for the uMngeni, Mooi and Breede Catchments, (ii) build on the water resource accounting methodology developed in WRC-funded projects K5/2205 and K5/2512, (iii) explore use of the accounts in catchment-scale planning and management, and (iv) build skills to develop and interpret the accounts within relevant organisations.

Outcomes:

• Improved understanding of the synergies between water resource accounts and other natural capital accounts, in particular national water, land and ecological infrastructure accounts. This improved understanding has in part been facilitated through (i) the use of a common basic spatial units, and (ii) the use of a common hierarchical land cover classification.
• A further refined water resource accounting methodology for South Africa, including better input datasets, detailed configuration of the ACRU hydrological model, and improved visualisation of the accounts in tables, graphs and maps.
• A better understanding of the role of the water resource accounts in catchment-scale planning and management, through the bigger EI4WS project.
• Increased capacity in developing and applying water resource accounts in South Africa through collaboration with natural capital accounting practitioners within SANBI and Statistics South Africa.
• The water resource accounts represent a different but complementary viewpoint to the National Water Accounts based on SEEA‐Water. Resulting from this project the concept of water resource accounts has gained increased national and international exposure through: (i) publication of a discussion document titled “4 – Sub-national Water Resource Accounts, 2015 to 2021” [Link] by Statistics South Africa in March 2024, and (ii) a paper presented to the 29th Meeting of the London Group on Environmental Accounting, in September 2023.

The approach to water resource accounting developed in the CWRR and refined in this project could contribute to international practice in the application of water accounting at a catchment scale for better integrated planning and management to improve water security, considering ecological, social and economic aspects of water.

Funders:                  Water Research Commission

Time frame:            1 April 2020 – 31 March 2024

Contract value:      R 2 000 000

Project Team:        Mr Richard Kunz (Project Leader); Mr Kyle Reddy; Mr Thando Mthembu; Mr Simon Lake; Prof. Tafadzwa Mabhaudhi; Dr Vimbayi Chimonyo; Mr Vivek Naiken

Collaborators:        Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development; Department of Water and Sanitation

Context: In South Africa, about 60% of the country is classified as semi-arid to arid, with the remainder experiencing a temperate climate characterised by a dry winter season. Hence, rainfall is a major limiting factor to crop production, with yields being highly vulnerable to rainfall magnitude and seasonal distribution. Therefore, in a water scarce country like South Africa, it is important to improve the productive use of water, reduce poverty in rural communities via improved agricultural production, increase profitability of smallholder farming systems and ensure sustainable use of water and soil resources.

Root and Tuber Crops (RTCs) exhibit, inter alia, reasonable tolerance to drought conditions, flexibility in mixed farming systems and the ability to produce reasonable yields with minimal agricultural inputs. Thus, RTCs are considered suitable for production in marginal environments by resource-poor farmers. In order to strive towards the most beneficial use of the country’s scarce water resources, there is a need to optimise the rainfed production of RTCs. This requires knowledge of crop water use characteristics, with estimates currently ranging from 450 to 2500 mm. Such figures need to be verified, as high water use renders such crops as unsuitable for rainfed production in South Africa.

Main objective: This project focused on measuring and modelling the water use and yield of sweet potato and taro, as well as investigating their nutritional value.

Outcomes: For both RTCs, (i) crop water use and yield was measured using two micrometeorological techniques (eddy covariance and surface renewal) in field experiments conducted at Fountainhill Eco-estate, KwaZulu-Natal; (ii) Crop growth and yield was evaluated in a UKZN greenhouse experiment, including their tolerance to water deficit and extreme heat growing conditions; (iii) The nutrient content (C in g kg^-1) of leaves and tubers was also measured in a laboratory; (iv) Measured datasets were used to fine-tune and evaluate existing crop parameters; (v) The AquaCrop model was run to simulate seasonally averaged yield (Y in kg ha^-1) and evapotranspiration (ET in m³) across southern Africa; (vi) Maps of crop water productivity (ratio of Y to ET in kg m^-3) and nutritional water productivity (ratio of C to ET in g m^-3) were developed; (vii) The ACRU model was used to assess their stream flow reduction potential; and (viii) Land suitability maps were developed to highlight regions well suited to the cultivation of both RTCs. Most of this work was done for the first time, especially for sweet potato. The results showed that although both crops are nutrient-dense, sweet potato is more water use efficient than taro. Under rainfed growing conditions, neither crop has the potential to significantly reduce water availability to downstream users. Both crops are ideally suited to the coastal regions of southern KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape.

Final report title: Crop and nutritional water productivity of sweet potato and taro

Final report link: https://www.wrc.org.za/wp-content/uploads/mdocs/31241.pdf

The knowledge gained in this WRC-funded project (e.g. water use and yield estimates, nutritional value and land suitability maps) should help to promote increased production of indigenous root and tuber food crops in both small- and large-scale farming systems

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Funders:                 Water Research Commission

Time frame:           1 April 2020 – 31 December 2023

Contract value:      R 1 250 000

Project Team:         Dr Rebecka Henriksson, Dr Michele Toucher, Mdoda Ngwenya

Collaborators:        Mahlathini Development Foundation, SAEON, EFTEON, INR

Context: Smallholder communities in the Drakensberg depend on the natural resource base of their lands to sustain agriculture, water resources and ecosystem services for their livelihoods and well-being. Climate change, poverty and degraded landscapes call for urgent need to implement sustainable management strategies for securing these resources. The success of different water, land and natural resource management strategies vary and are highly context-dependent. The context-specifics in such communities include historical, institutional, and social-cultural settings, which shape the land management decisions made by community members and leaders. Sustainable management of water and natural resources that simultaneously promotes development is a complex issue and needs to be addressed from various angles simultaneously. This project brought together experts from various scientific disciplines (hydrology, ecology and sustainability science), community development practitioners and local communities, using a transdisciplinary, participatory approach to develop a decision-support framework for sustainable water and natural resources management in the smallholder communities in the Drakensberg.

Objectives:

• To assess and quantify changes in rainfall patterns and water quantity over time to inform communities’ decision-making.
• To develop a transdisciplinary social-ecological GIS support tool for decision making and management of water and natural resources and link land uses with ecosystem services and livelihoods.
• To survey ecosystem health and functioning including biodiversity of community land based on the needs of the communities for their ecosystem services and livelihoods.
• To improve the understanding of local decision making and resource use and management and identify the social-cultural factors that influence decisions.
• To design and test a framework for supporting innovation and decision making for sustainable resource use management and improved livelihood opportunities.

Outcomes:  A framework for supporting innovation and decision making for sustainable resource use management and improved livelihood opportunities was designed and tested [Aim (v)]. Co-learning between the project team and community participants about the rainfall patterns and water quantity and quality [Aim (i)]; the ecosystem health and functioning of community land, including biodiversity [Aim (iii)]; and the communities’ needs, priorities and decision-making structures [Aim (iv]) enabled the development of participatory community resource management plans that are community-led and expert guided. The process particularly empowered the communities to plan, innovate and take action towards management of their resources and to build social agency.

A transdisciplinary social-ecological GIS support tool was developed for decision making and management of water and natural resources, and locally defined land uses were linked with ecosystem services and livelihoods [Aim (ii)]. A series of map layers were produced for each of the communities, with spatial information about the community landscapes, co-generated between the project team and the communities. The map reading literacy and ability to interpret spatial information was significantly improved during the course of the project, which enables the communities to use the printed maps for continued decisions around community resources and management strategies.

Applying a transdisciplinary and participatory approach, this project co-developed sustainable and equitable management of land and water with smallholder agricultural communities in the Drakensberg.

Funders:                 REACH Program-Oxford University

Time frame:           1 November 2019 – 30 April 2023

Contract value:      £ 68 200 (R 1 600 000) 

Project Team:         Prof. Seifu Kebede Gurmessa

Collaborators:        This project contributes to the REACH Research Program of Oxford University

Context: REACH is an Oxford University led global research program to improve water security for the poor by delivering world-class science that transforms policy and practice. Living in poverty often means a struggle for water security. Rapid urban growth, unregulated pollution from industry, extreme floods and droughts, lack of reliable and safe drinking water, and increasing damage to water ecosystems threaten economies and undermine the lives of the poor. Improving water security is an important pathway to sustainable growth and poverty reduction. However, better evidence is needed to guide institutional and infrastructure investments which unlock growth opportunities and help people move out of poverty.

Objectives: The collaboration agreement aims to contribute to the overall REACH research program by undertaking the following key tasks:

• Groundwater age dating of key aquifers in the Rift Valley region in Ethiopia.
• Mapping emerging contaminants and exposure to emerging contaminants in drinking water sources.
• Investigate the pathways to water security for the City of Addis Ababa.

Outcome: UKZN’s contribution to the University of Oxford’s research includes training of two MSc (one at Addis Ababa University and one at UKZN) students and one PhD student. It further generated policy relevant knowledge on Water Quality Monitoring, urban water quality and conjunctive surface water groundwater use models under growing urban water scarcity. The feasibility of applying the South African developed biomonitoring tools (MiniSASS and SASS5) have been tested in Tropical rivers, taking the upper Awash River basin as an example.

This project contributed to the activities of the REACH Program, which in turn aims at: (a) generating new evidence on water security through an innovative, interdisciplinary, risk-based approach, (b) establishing science, practitioner and enterprise partnerships to ground research in approaches that will benefit the poor, and (c) building capacity and networks for the next generation of water managers and scientists in Africa and South Asia.

Funders:                 International Atomic Energy Agency – IAEA

Time frame:           12 April 2018 – 11 April 2024 

Contract value:      € 25 000

Project Team:         Prof. Seifu Kebede Gurmessa

Collaborators:        Addis Ababa University

Context: The development of large urban centres (especially megacities) is causing major health and water security problems around the world. Examples include intensive pumping and economic costs, overexploitation of local sources, water quality deterioration (wastewater from domestic and industrial uses, leakages, etc.), and poor sanitation and hygiene conditions resulting in water and vector borne diseases. These impacts have heavily disturbed the local water cycle (water balance, interactions, water quality), and new approaches are required on a local, regional, and global scale to address these issues and to sustainably exploit groundwater as a key resource in drought conditions.

Objectives: The current proposal aims to use Isotope (18O, 2H, 3H in water; 18O, 15N in nitrates, and 222Rn in water) to evaluate the opportunities and challenges associated with the water and wastewater management practices in the capital City of Ethiopia. More specifically the project aims to:

• Evaluate the interconnection between the various water sources (reservoirs, shallow and deep groundwaters, urban runoff).
• Trace origin/source of tap waters in the various part of the urban area (residential, squatter settlements, slums, Industrial parks).
• Evaluate the role of the flourishing decentralised wastewater and sludge managements on over all water security in the city.

Outcome: The project developed an independent isotope hydrological method to estimate urban piped water residence time and track the movement of water through piped network. Two scientific papers came out of this project – one focussed on the city of Addis Ababa and the second focused on the global intercomparison of the use of isotopes in urban water management studies in more than 12 cities across the world.

This project forms part of the IAEAs Coordinated Research Project and contributed to the development, testing, and integration of new capabilities and methodologies in Member States so they can better assess, map, and manage water resources that are used for domestic water supply in urban environments.